A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
